After inquiries from the FCC regarding early termination fees charged by carriers, you’d think they would be a little more careful about blatantly ripping off customers.  Ha! Just kidding, cell carriers aren’t afraid of the FCC.

AT&T plans to up its early termination fee from $175 to $350 on June 1st.

Coincidentally, that’s right before the new iPhone comes out.  There are two ways to go with this.  The first scenario is the most likely - that AT&T simply wants to cash in on people pulling the cancel-your-account-and-sign-back-up-for-a-subsidized-iPhone maneuver.  Or that the new iPhone costs so much that to subsidize it, they have to charge a higher ETF.  

The second option is that I was wrong, a CDMA iPhone really is in the works, it’s closer than we think, and AT&T is desperately trying to prevent customers from leaving its notoriously spotty network once it’s no longer the only iPhone game in town.

Either way, unless AT&T announces some special deals for current iPhone customers, you’ll be left with two options.  Incur the $350 fee, cancel and reup your account, and get a subsidized iPhone.  Or if you don’t qualify for an “early upgrade,” pony the $600-700 (possibly more) for an unsubsidized iPhone.  Neither of these are particularly compelling, but there’s a third option.

Cancel your account now, and switch to another carrier until the 4th generation iPhone comes out.

Sprint and Verizon offer a 30 day trial period with no commitment.  Canceling your AT&T account before June 1st with only incur the current $175 ETF.  Then just switch back to AT&T when the new iPhone comes out (theoretically within the first two weeks of June).  They’ll welcome you back with a subsidized rate on a brand new 4th generation iPhone, and a contract you can’t cancel for less than the price of a cheap car.

I get it, guys.  Seriously.  Everyone I know who doesn’t have an iPhone has one of two reasons.

1. They’re on their mom’s family plan and she won’t switch carriers.
2. They’re on a company plan.

And that’s nothing to be ashamed of.  You’re cheap, you’re owned by your company, whatever.  But if you’re a journalist, you have something of an (oh god I can hear people laughing) obligation to report well-researched, or at least plausible facts.  The latest article cites the following highly credible sources:

• “People familiar with the situation”
• “People familiar with the device”
• “People briefed by the company”

And, none of those people said anything about Verizon.  Just CDMA.  So, employees of WSJ, with your Blackberries; I sympathize, I really do.  But Apple isn’t going to make a Verizon iPhone just because you write an article every week, predicting it.

One “we told you so!” isn’t worth years of bad journalism and failed predictions.

A fellow Seattlite and hopeful future Verizon-branded iPhone customer wrote a little blurb about this, which reminded me that I’ve been meaning to chime in with some analysis.

Here’s a chart of the chances the iPhone will show up on Verizon.

Note how it takes a steep turn downwards right about 2005.  This is a result of Verizon turning down Apple, who offered them the iPhone first.  The sticking points? Apple wanted control over distribution and warranty repairs.

Also notable on this chart is a slight rise in 2011.  AT&T’s contract is set to expire this year, but industry pundits say they’re trying to negotiate an extension.

No shit.  The iPhone is a massive cash cow for AT&T, and you can bet they’re going to do anything they can to hold onto it.  Including offering Apple what is quite possibly the sweetest mobile data plan in history.

I’m referring of course to this.

$15 for 250mb, $30 for “unlimited” (5gb).  This makes it second only to the Kindle in giving the average consumer a decent reason to have always-on mobile Internet on something other than a cell phone.

This article covers the effect it could have on the cellular industry.  Basically, AT&T isn’t just giving up a contract and some profit, they’re potentially changing the entire topography of the mobile data marketplace.

All so they can hold onto Apple.

I’m not going to say that the iPhone won’t show up on Verizon.  Apple does love money, and expanding their userbase into other networks would certainly increase revenue. But on the other hand, AT&T is willing to go to incredible lengths to maintain their exclusivity, and I don’t think Steve Jobs has forgotten who told him to go get stuffed when the iPhone was in development.