A fellow Seattlite and hopeful future Verizon-branded iPhone customer wrote a little blurb about this, which reminded me that I’ve been meaning to chime in with some analysis.

Here’s a chart of the chances the iPhone will show up on Verizon.

Note how it takes a steep turn downwards right about 2005.  This is a result of Verizon turning down Apple, who offered them the iPhone first.  The sticking points? Apple wanted control over distribution and warranty repairs.

Also notable on this chart is a slight rise in 2011.  AT&T’s contract is set to expire this year, but industry pundits say they’re trying to negotiate an extension.

No shit.  The iPhone is a massive cash cow for AT&T, and you can bet they’re going to do anything they can to hold onto it.  Including offering Apple what is quite possibly the sweetest mobile data plan in history.

I’m referring of course to this.

$15 for 250mb, $30 for “unlimited” (5gb).  This makes it second only to the Kindle in giving the average consumer a decent reason to have always-on mobile Internet on something other than a cell phone.

This article covers the effect it could have on the cellular industry.  Basically, AT&T isn’t just giving up a contract and some profit, they’re potentially changing the entire topography of the mobile data marketplace.

All so they can hold onto Apple.

I’m not going to say that the iPhone won’t show up on Verizon.  Apple does love money, and expanding their userbase into other networks would certainly increase revenue. But on the other hand, AT&T is willing to go to incredible lengths to maintain their exclusivity, and I don’t think Steve Jobs has forgotten who told him to go get stuffed when the iPhone was in development.